#Raw Materials

2026-09-02

Global cotton production projected to outpace consumption, but risks remain

Global cotton production is projected to reach 26.2 million tonnes in the 2026/27 season, marginally outpacing estimated consumption of 25.9 million tonnes. However, early-season production risks — including weather volatility and pest pressures — could narrow that buffer as the crop progresses, according to the September 2026 issue of Cotton This Month, published by the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC).

Historically, global production estimates decline by approximately 100,000 tonnes from initial projections as crop conditions clarify. Assuming normal seasonal developments, ICAC projects that 2026/27 production will likely ease toward 26.0-26.1 million tonnes, with steeper declines possible if major weather disruptions or pest outbreaks emerge.

Key Regional Highlights

China: Ongoing sales from state reserves, which began July 20 and have averaged roughly 8,000 tonnes per auction, are improving near-term domestic availability. However, eventual reserve replenishment — alongside potential weather risks in Xinjiang — could lead ICAC to revise China’s import demand upward later this season.

India: Upward revisions bring estimated 2025/26 production to 5.5 million tonnes (+9%) and consumption to nearly 5.9 million tonnes (+7%), driven by strong domestic mill demand and textile export growth. Long-term stability is being bolstered by the government’s five-year Cotton Mission and digital initiatives like the Kapas Kisan app (enrolling over 4.1 million farmers) and Kasturi Cotton Bharat's blockchain traceability framework.

Pakistan: Production remains constrained by climate variability, pest infestations, poor seed quality, and high input costs. Output is estimated at 1.15 million tonnes in 2025/26 (-4%) and projected to fall further to 1.10 million tonnes in 2026/27, expanding reliance on raw cotton imports.

United States: Planted area is revised upward to 3.3 million hectares (+5%), raising projected 2026/27 output to 2.9 million tonnes. Additionally, newly implemented US Section 301 tariffs (10% to 12.5%) are altering global trade flows; key manufacturing hubs like Vietnam may face a cost disadvantage, prompting buyers to reassess sourcing strategies.

Price Projections

The ICAC Secretariat forecasts the 2026/27 Cotlook A Index price to range between 62 and 99 cents per pound, with a midpoint of 78 cents per pound.

The author of Cotton This Month is Parkhi Vats, Principal Statistician & Data Architect at ICAC.

The next issue of Cotton This Month will be released on October 1, 2026. Real-time statistical updates are available continuously via the ICAC Data Portal.

ICAC Data Portal

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